Show me a guy who
doesn’t mind losing and I will show you
a loser. Stu Ungar
Harvest season is
in the poker room but I keep shoveling
the wheat with a pitch fork.
Don’t challenge strong
players. Challenge weak ones. That's what
they are there for. John
Vorhaus
Poker is a game that
goes on within yourself. Control yourself
and you will be a winner.
For many years have
I played poker and for many of them some
secrets I have guarded closely. When doing
the tips of the week, consideration is
often given whether the tip that will
be given will affect my ability to make
money as a professional. The tip this
week took me a long time to put into print.
I have personally asked Mason Malmuth
a friend and player who I respect in high
regard to review the numbers when he gets
a chance and make corrections. Remember
I have done the calculations in rough
form and they are coming from my play
book.
Well here we go. The
tip of the week this week are breakdowns.
Have you ever heard of this before. First
lets look at the breakdown of hand. We
are not just looking at the first two
cards here we are looking at the flop.
Lets take a look at one breakdown from
my play book. Qs 7d 5s that's the flop.
Lets say you hold 7s 6s in the blind and
a tight opponent raises from early fairly
early position and you have some callers.
All the opponents fold to you after the
raiser bets on the flop. Well what beats
the hand that you have: AA (6 combinations),
KK (6 combinations), AQ (16 combinations),
KQs (4 combinations), 77 (1 combination),
55 (3 combinations), QQ (3 combinations).
A total of 39 combinations that beat your
hand out of 1326. That comes out to 2.94
percent. Now lets take a look at another
example Js 7d 5s. AA (6 combinations),
KK (6 combinations), QQ (6 combinations),
JJ (3 combinations), AJs (4 combinations),
77 (1 combination), 55 (3 combinations).
A total of 29 out of 1326 that beat your
hand. That comes out to 2.18 percent.
Now all you sharpies
out there may say that TT to 88 beats
you. This is true but we plan to make
those hands drop. I plan to do this on
the flop or the turn with check raises.
On the flop you have the odds to make
a check raise. But what are the check
raise odds on the turn. Well lets look
at the odds. Two players called the raiser
plus yourself and half the small blind.
This comes out to be 8.5 small bets in
the pot. The original player bet and you
called a total of 10.5 small bets. On
the turn the opponent bets so there are
now 12.5 small bets or 6.25 big bets on
the turn. Now comes your check raise making
it 8.25 big bets in the pot. What are
the odds to hit the hand any way. Well
9 spades hits your hand as well as any
7 or 6 for a total of 14 outs or 2.28
to one. The cost of the check raise to
you is 2 times 2.28 or 4.56. But the pot
contains. 8.25 bets in the pot for approximately
4 big bets profit. By the way, he only
has you beat 2.94 to begin with anyway.
But what do breakdowns do for you anyway.
Breakdowns allow you to make plays at
opponents with positive expectations.
Breakdowns have also given us insight
on when to check raise bluff. The time
to check raise bluff is when few combinations
can be made from the restricted opponents
top card. For example Js 7d 5s is more
restricted in regards to combinations
with a value of 2.18 percent compared
to Qs 7d 5s with a value of 2.94 percent.
Bluffing should also include these factors.
Making plays like these confuse opponents
and cause opponents to give you added
play on you normal check raises and good
hands that you have bet for value and
it is all done with a positive expectation.
