JV'S KILLER POKER:
Wobble

BY: John Vorhaus

The worst thing you can do in poker is be weak. It kills you two ways. First it surrenders initiative and second it leaves you open to attack.

Initiative. What they call the "right of first bluff." In certain games in certain circumstances, all you have to do is bet to win. Strong players understand this intuitively. The rest of us watch and wonder how those strongies got so rich. And I hear you complaining. I know your beef. You claim that every time you try and act strong you get run down by some J-5 moleskin who doesn't know enough to throw away that cheese against your monster raise. Sorry about that - cheese happens. But wouldn't you rather be in a game where the moleskins play J-5 than in a game where they don't? So when you're there, play strong! If you have the initiative, you have the edge.

Attack. Attack the weak. Need I remind you (oh, after all this time need I remind you?) that's what the weak are there for. And if you're weak, you're meat. Get it? Do you get it? Meat. What strong players do is they test you. They probe you to see if you're weak. They check to see how you respond to pressure.

They want to see if you'll wobble.

And if you do, whoa Nelly! Here's how it happens.

Here's how your incipient weakness gets you into trouble at the hands of a stronger player.

You've bought into the $10-20 hold 'em game for the right kind of money - $500 - and you're playing what you perceive to be tight-aggressive poker. You throw away such holdings as K-x, 9-8 suited, even bad aces. You don't mind taking a few folds. You want a tight image and plus you're getting the measure of your foes, seeing who's out of line.

So you think.

But now here comes a hand where you see pocket nines, and you decide to limp in. Boom! The foe to your left raises almost before your chips have left your hand. And you start to sweat. Does she have an overpair? Big tickets? What is she doing in your first pot of the night in the first place?

Testing you. Pressing you. Messing with your mind. She sees that you haven't been involved up till now and she wants to see what you're made of - on her terms, not yours. She's been waiting for you to enter a pot, just so she could jump on top of you. What could she possibly have?

I'll tell you: Anything. Anything from 7-2 to pocket aces. So how does that information help you when the flop comes T-x-x? Not at all. Because she's not betting her hand, she's betting yours. She knows that any flop - any flop - can look like a scare flop if she bets into it. Mostly she's betting against you having hit your hand. Since everyone misses more often than they hit, she's got odds. That's why the wobble raise is so effective. Since you're more likely to miss any flop than hit it, you're more likely to wobble than not.

So what do you do? Oh, if only you could raise back. If only you could pull the trigger on that counterattack. Don't you see the razor's edge you stand on? If you surrender here, your foe knows that you're weak. She knows that you wobble. She knows that you'll fold under pressure. You might as well just give her your money now.

No wonder you've been running poorly lately, bunky. You let your opponents pick you apart.

Take a look at that flop. Take a look at that flop. Fit it into your foe's hand. Remember, she's no more likely to have a big hand than you are. So what's she betting on? Either a piece of the flop or no piece of the flop. Those are the only possibilities. If she caught some of the flop, the best she likely caught was a ten, and all she can do is press it or surrender. She's strong. She knows to press it. She might even press it with middle pair or bottom pair or overcards or even nothing at all.

But what if you press it right back?

I think you have to. I don't think you can afford a whiff of wobble in the sort of game where they attack wobble just because it's there. You're assailed on all sides. And until you throw some muscle back at your assailants, they're not going to let up. I wouldn't. Would you? Of course not. It's what you dream of. Tough guy poker. Killer Poker.

You fantasize about playing that tough. You fantasize about being the one who makes others wobble. But then when you get into a situation where you can be the one, you blow it completely. How does that happen?

Suppose you drop back to a much lower level, a place where you feel comfortable splashing bets around because the money is meaningless to you. You play strong - and it works! Next thing you know, you're the bully in the game. You're the one putting others on the wobble. You're the one with all the big stacks. You're the King of Cheese!

And that's when you're doomed.

Because in that instant you stop playing strong poker and start playing glory poker. You're not earning money, you're earning admiration - so you think. Haven't you figured it out yet? Each of us is the center of our own universe, and we're of abiding slender interest to the universe next door. No one cares how well you do. No one cares how good you feel. But you don't care that they don't care. You're too busy shining, basking in your own marvelous ability. How the hell can you play your best game when you're just showing off?

And before you know it, you've blown off some bets and taken some beats, and so you retreat to your tight, timid style and you're back on your heels, back on the wobble again. The heat of combat is no time to stroke the ego. Stroke the ego at home, for God's sake, or at least wait till you get to the cashier's cage. But also the heat of combat is no time to feel fear.

The heat of combat is the time to execute. Execute plans you've made based on strategies you've devised. Time to play strong because you are strong, not because your cards are. Can you do that? Can you play without ego, but also without fear, so that you make the best possible decision based on the best available information, all the time and every time? Then you've got a shot. You've got a shot at Killer Poker.