Not Quite a Sure Thing

With the golf ball lying eight inches from the cup, missing the short putt seems to be an impossibility. It is almost a sure thing. An NBA player steals the ball and breaks away for an uncontested dunk. It is almost a sure thing. I was invited to a friendly home game with several tables filled with mostly inexperienced and unknowledgeable players. With a slow blind structure and a deep pay out, it was almost a sure thing that I'd place in the money.

This was the first ever live playing experience for many of the competitors. Many of the guys and ladies that converged on this particular home game literally needed a cheat sheet to remind them if a flush beat a straight. I spent more time explaining the dealer button, blinds, antes, and other basics of poker than I did actually playing the game. While I was happy to fill the role of poker ambassador and teacher for these eager new players, it was clear that it was an effective means of gathering chips. A couple of hours into the tournament, I found my chip stack to be dangerously low. I refocused myself and my efforts. I was determined and hungry to have a good showing. I knew that it was my ego that fueled much of the internal fire. I also knew that I would really enjoy having the first place prize money in my pocket on the ride home.

Well, I've missed an eight inch putt many times in my life. I've bricked many wide open lay-ups on the basketball court, as well. I've now blown another sure thing: losing in an incredibly soft poker game. My mind raced on my drive of shame back to my house. While it was obvious that I was the most experienced and most knowledgeable player at the game, several factors combined to lead to my underachievement. Mostly, my over confidence had me thinking that I could easily fill the roles of tournament director and dealer on every single hand while still playing quality poker. In reality, my focus and energy was divided in too many directions. Scheming to extract chips from unknowledgeable players is actually a formidable challenge. Their lack of understanding of the game leads them to be perfectly unpredictable, as you can't guess what they are doing if THEY don't know what they are doing. With that in mind, it is truly a different form of tournament poker that is being played. When your opposition does not understand position, "appropriate" betting and raising amounts, and poker statistics there is little hope of accurately projecting your opponents cards due to their actions of betting or calling. Instead, it is a time to exercise skills in poker psychology, which is my expertise and strength. Yet I had not leaned on my strengths as other factors consumed my radar.

All of us know to look for games that put us in a favorable position to win. While it is healthy to always expect to win, we all understand that in sports and gaming there is no such thing as a sure thing. It is usually a lack of concentration that causes us to shank a short golf putt. It is usually a premature sense of relaxation that leads us to miss an easy lay-up in basketball. The same holds true when we lay an egg on the poker table when we know that we should've succeeded. Even a soft poker game requires us to stay focused and energized. Games filled with calling stations and new players still require us to play our game to assure profits. There certainly is no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to poker.

Note: In addition to being a columnist for many of the top poker magazines in the U.S. and Canada, John is a National Certified Counselor (NCC) in America. He has a Master of Arts degree in Counseling from West Virginia University, and a Bachelor's degree in Psychology with a minor in Sociology from Lock Haven University. You can arrange for interviews, speaking engagements, or find out more about the psychology of poker by emailing carlisle14@hotmail.com.

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