The Curse of Knowledge (Long and Bitter)

BY: Dave in Cali

This is a satirical essay concerning a few things that an educated, enlightened, winning gambler must face in his gambling career.

It's kinda bitter.

Bitter, party of one, your table's ready!

And it's kinda moronic too.

And it does shed some light on this highly important subject.

I am Dave in Cali. I am a scientist. I have edumacation in mathematics, statistics, logic, and a variety of other brainiac kinda topics too. I study the game of poker. I aspire to be the best player I can be, and to win money while doing it. I understand how gambling works. I know about things like the standard deviation. Expectation. Expected value. Fluctuations. And the nature of randomness and "luck." I have read many books. I have studied the best texts on the game of poker. I "know" the facts. I "know" about the true nature of gambling. I choose my actions based on what I know about gambling, poker, odds, randomness, luck, etc. There are a few individuals who know me that can verify that I "know" all these things. A very small few indeed. The rest of the world doesn't have a clue. And they don't want one either..

So what do you do when you "know" what I know? Well, obviously, you play poker. And win money. And feel smug when you do. You use all these facts that you "know" to win at gambling. And depending on your bankroll, discipline, and personal desire, you can potentially make a lot of money because of what you "know." But WHY does this knowledge of yours allow you to win at gambling? Well, against most gambling games, you "know" that you simply can't beat them, so you don't play them. One of the reasons I have become a winning player is that I really don't gamble. Yes, I play poker, and poker has an element of chance. And many people play poker because they like to "gamble". But not me. I don't like to gamble. I lived ten minutes from Atlantic city for years and hardly ever went to the casinos. And when I did go, I hardly ever spent more than $20. Until I took up poker. Then all of a sudden I was at the casinos three or four nights a week. But I still wasn't gambling. I read the top five books before I had finished my second session. By the second month, I had read fifteen books. By a year, I had read over 30. The competition in Atlantic City at the lower limits is weak, especially at stud. While Hold'em took a while to get the hang of, stud was profitable right from the beginning. Not surprising. I am young, and my memory is good. I remember upcards. Plus, I "know" how to play seven card stud. And the competition was mostly elderly tourists who didn't "know" squat about jack. They had poor memories. These people had come to the casino to "gamble." These people didn't know what I know.

So what good does knowing all this stuff do for you, other than to make you a buck? What else can you get out of knowing all this stuff? I make more money as a scientist than I do as a poker player. I make money in science because I "know" stuff. Stuff that is valuable to my employer. Stuff that allows me to overcome obstacles and make decisions that will ultimately be profitable for both my employer and myself. I make money in poker because I use what I know to evaluate situations and put my money into the pot when I have a mathematical advantage. I use what I know to avoid making costly mistakes that other poker players routinely make while they are "gambling."

But there's a major difference. I can talk about science. I can talk to coworkers. To family. To friends. I can explain interesting stuff. I can educate people on the facts of science that I know about. People want to hear these facts, and when they do, they tend to believe them. If I talk about science, people listen. This is not the case with gambling. Try explaining to the average craps player that he is a loser, and can never win, no matter what he does, because the laws of mathematics make winning at craps impossible in the long run. Try explaining to the little old ladies by the nickel slots that they are doomed to lose. Try to explain to Grandpa in Atlantic City that no matter what he thinks, Let It Ride is a loser game. Try to explain to Loose Lucy that calling two raises cold while drawing at an inside straight in a three way pot is suicidal on your wallet. Try to explain to ANYONE that the idea that you can be "due to win" is simply not true. Try to explain to Mr. Maniac that he is not ON a rush, he HAS BEEN on a rush. Try to explain the true nature of the relationship between the standard deviation and the expectation to anyone. Try to explain that winning or losing in gambling depends on how you will fare in the long run, and that the short term results are pretty much irrelevant. Try to explain just how long the "long run" really is. You will be mocked, ignored, ridiculed. No one will believe you. You can't explain any of this stuff to the average person, they simply won't believe it. The misguided ideas they hold are so ingrained into their brains that they simply cannot even comprehend the possibility that the facts may be different from their beliefs.

Throughout the land, people widely believe many things about gambling that are completely false. They hold onto these beliefs like a security blanket. They use their misguided beliefs to comfort themselves, to justify their actions, and to give themselves hope. But it's a false comfort, a false hope. Their beliefs do not actually change the laws of mathematics. Believing that you are a winning craps player does not provide you with any means of actually beating the game and becoming a winner. If you play craps, you are losing money. If you bet $10 on pass, you theoretically lose about 14 cents every time a decision is made on your bet. Drop a ten dollar bill, pick up nine dollars and eight-six cents. That's what you are doing each time you bet the pass line. It's worse if you play the proposition bets. And if you play the slots, you are losing just the same, but the exact amount that you theoretically lose on each pull of the handle may not necessarily be readily apparent, even to those who "know" about gambling.

All across the land, people are relying on their false beliefs to give them hope, justify their losing ways, and comfort themselves. Ignorance is truly bliss, and I have seen an awful lot of blissful people gambling their hard earned dollars into oblivion. And the greedy know how to exploit this ignorance. Yes, greedy. Casinos. Imagine that. A business derived solely for the purpose of getting people's money. A business that exploits the ignorance of the common man for material gain. A business that knowingly and purposely perpetuates the common man's ignorance and uses it as an avenue to relieve him of his cash. Imagine that.

Now if you try to explain the "facts" to these ignorant, blissful people, they refuse to believe. They offer illogical, mathematically impossible explanations as to why they are exempt from the facts, how they overcome the facts, and how they are really winners. Sometimes they get upset with you because you are saying something which is different from the things they already "know for a fact." Sometimes they mock you. But most of the time, you might as well have just been talking to a brick wall, for they never even heard you at all. They may have been watching you speak, and they may have been nodding their head the whole time, and they may have even complimented you as to how interesting those facts you mentioned are. But it's a lie. They didn't hear a thing. You didn't impart any of your vast extent of knowledge upon them. Their ignorance remains steadfast and strong, their beliefs do no waiver.

It's the same all over. Your average Foxwoods tourist from Maine is just as clueless as your average Vegas tourist from Oregon. You couldn't impart one iota of your vast array of knowledge upon them, no matter how you might try. When it comes to gambling, not only are people ignorant of the facts, but they don't want to hear them either. They don't want to hear anything that might take away that comfort blanket of beliefs they hold so tightly around them. And if they DO happen to hear some actual facts, you can bet they will probably find some way to discount them. They won't accept the "facts," because the "facts" contradict that which they "know." And they use what they "know" to justify their gambling habits. After all, gambling is fun. When you win, endorphins are released in your brain. And people will do almost anything to release endorphins. And if you try to slip in your darn facts, then those endorphins won't get released anymore. And we can't have THAT, now can we..

So there you are. You and your vast array of knowledge. Smugly sitting there, knowing you are a winner, knowing that you won't be the victim of misguided beliefs. You have evolved, and are somehow above the rest of humanity. All because of your extensive comprehension of the facts. You're so impressed with yourself. But you're all alone. No one else here but you and your measly little facts. And you aren't releasing any endorphins at all. No, you are too evolved for that. You know that releasing endorphins is not something you do when you go to the gambling hall. That's because the facts aren't pretty. Actually, the facts kinda suck! They aren't pleasant at all! They provide no real security blanket, no genuine hope, no relief. The facts stand between you and the money, and there is no easy way to get around them. Sure, there are a few gambling games that can be beaten. Poker can be beaten. So can Blackjack and Paigow, but these are much more difficult to beat, because the facts are even less favorable for these games. And on occasion other gambling games can be beaten too. But the facts still remain. And they still kinda suck.

And there you remain, all by your little lonesome self, just you and your pathetic little facts, with no one to talk to. Of course no one will believe you anyway, even if you did have someone to talk to. You're doomed to a life of lonely solitude. Doomed to a life of being scorned, rejected and cast out. Just you and your facts. You don't have hope, you just have the facts. You don't have a security blanket, you just have your EVs and SDs and CVs. You don't have anyone to hear you, no one who will listen. There is no one whom you can impart your vast array of knowledge upon, no one whom you can impress with your extensive wisdom. So you struggle through life, bitter and alone, because you have no one with whom to share your enlightenment with. No one exists who can have an intelligent conversation with you regarding that which you have studied, that which you have successfully applied in order to forge a winning strategy. The truth is a lonely road, and it holds no comfort for those whom choose its path.

But wait! Alas! There's light at the end of the tunnel! As it turns out, perhaps your bitter lonely existence has another side to it, a ray of sunshine on an otherwise cloudy day! As it turns out, you really don't WANT to discuss the facts with people! You CAN be a winning player only because of widespread denial of the facts! If all the poker players in the world knew what you knew, you couldn't win! If everyone knew the facts, and acted in a rational manner because they knew these facts, then gambling wouldn't exist at all! And people wouldn't be releasing any endorphins! THEN what would happen? I'll tell you what would happen. Massive, massive suffering. The end of mankind as we know it. Huge, writhing swarms of people, running like lemmings, eager to jump off the nearest cliff and end their horrible, pointless, hopeless, endorphinless lives! No, life could not exist as we know it if everyone were to truly understand the facts. So you may have to suffer through life, bitter and alone, never able to share the wisdom you have attained with the world. But the world will still be happy anyway. And it's in the best interest of the educated gambler to keep people happy. Because after all, Ignorance is truly bliss..

© Dave in Cali 2001, all rights reserved