Four Degrees of Poker Thinking, Part One

They say that poker is a thinking man's sport, where it doesn't matter what kind of shape you're in, how fast you can run, or how high you can jump. What matters in poker is how your brain works compared to the other brains at your table. Over a long stretch of time, the smartest poker brain will eventually best the others, and win the most money.

But poker is not about knowing things, or solving puzzles, or spelling long complicated words. It is neither Jeopardy! nor chess. It is a game of action and deceit, of psychology and mathematics, of analysis and good old fashioned guts.

At its core, it is a game of trying to get into your opponents' heads. When you have a strong hand, you might act strong, or you might act weak. Your opponent has to figure out whether your action is genuine or deceptive. And your task is to do the same for him. Meanwhile, you are looking at him for signs that reveal the strength of his hand, remembering his betting patterns and tendencies, and constantly evaluating and re-evaluating the partial information that you receive.

Poker brings into play multiple layers of thought, and that is what I want to discuss here. Before every action, there are first a series of questions: What do I have? What does he have? What does he think I have? And so on, and so on, until you are wondering what he thinks you think he thinks you think he has.

Realistically, there are four degrees of thought in poker. The first degree is playing your own hand. (What do I have?) The second degree is playing your opponents' hands. (What does he have?) The third degree is playing your opponents' perception of you. (What does he think I have?) And the fourth is playing your opponents' perceptions of themselves. (What does he think I think he has?) Beyond that, the thinking gets convoluted, and really doesn't amount to anything important. So, we're really dealing with four degrees of poker thinking.

It is important to understand that weaker players don't think in terms of all four degrees, and strong players do. When you evaluate your opponents, one of the things you should be looking at are which degrees they use and which they don't. In this article, we'll take a look at the first-degree player. Next month, we'll examine the other three.

If a player is very weak, then they rely exclusively on first-degree thinking. If they have two pair, then they really like their hand, even if someone else could have trips. The same player would push hard with a small flush, never considering that a better flush could be out there. If he likes his hand, he calls any bet from anybody. If he doesn't, he folds. He doesn't generally make a play at the pot, and will not slow-play you very often or very well.

These players are a dying breed, unfortunately. With all of the poker on television and the Internet, players are moving past this stage pretty quickly or going broke fast. But they are still out there, and you better get to them as soon as possible. They won't be holding onto their money for very long.

One mistake that I've seen in playing these players is any attempt to deceive them. All of your tricky moves are great against opponents who are paying close attention to you, but are completely lost on the first-degree thinker, who is only concerned about his hand.

As an example, I was playing in a tournament with a player on my right who was a tight-aggressive player with some skills. On my left was a loose calling station who was clearly a first-degree thinker. The two got were heads up in a raised pot, and the flop came out 10-7-7. Tight Aggressive came out betting, and matched the size of the pot. Calling station called. The turn was a Queen, and the same thing happened. Tight Aggressive bet, and Calling Station called. The river was a blank, and the exasperated Tight Aggressive player checked. The Calling Station checked here too, and turned over a pair of sixes. Tight Aggressive threw Ace-King on the table, and the following dialog transpired:

"How can you call me with that?"
"I had two pair."
"But I was representing a ten or a seven!"
"So?"
"So, did you think your sixes were good?"
"I had two pair, sixes and sevens."

The rest of us at the table were trying to restrain ourselves from giggling, as we watched one player reveal his total ignorance of the game and the other go on absolute, full-blown tilt. Needless to say, neither of them lasted too long in the tournament, and I think that Tight Aggressive is still complaining about this hand.

The point is, when you have a first-degree thinker by the tail, don't try anything fancy. He may be holding a good hand or a bad one, but he's not paying attention to your hand, so don't complicate things. Look to his actions as a sign of weakness or strength, and bet or fold accordingly. Just don't berate them for not noticing your tricky moves.

Another way that a first-degree player can give you fits is their absolute refusal to camouflage their hand. When they have the nuts, they bet it much more heavily than a triekier player would. They're not trying to suck in downstream bets from you. They're trying to get your money now. But if you don't realize what kind of player you're dealing with, you can suck yourself in.

An example of this actually happened to me. I was in a $1/2 NL cash game after a tournament, against players that I didn't know very well. I called a raise with King-Queen of hearts in position against a who seemed weak to me. He was somewhat short stacked, with only about $50 in front of him at the start of the hand.

The flop came out King-Queen-Six, and all three cards were spades. Although the flop helped me considerably, the fact that it was three spades gave me some pause. He immediately tossed in $20, a slight overbet of the pot, and I knew that he didn't have the spades. I put him on a good King, a good Queen or a flush draw, and his bet told me that he wanted to shut things down right there and then. I was quite certain that I had the best hand. I put him in the rest of the way, and he flipped over two more spades, including the ace -- the nut flush. My two pair didn't improve, and he doubled up, thanks to my stupidity.

How could he bet the nut flush like that? Simple. He had a good hand, and so he bet. He didn't try to hide it, and he didn't try to bet strong to appear weak. It wasn't that complicated. He played ABC poker, and allowed me to outthink myself.

Now, had he checked the flop, the result would have been the same. I would have pushed hard, he would have called, and he would have had it all in the middle by the river anyway. But the point is, if you are up against a player that you've never seen before, don't assume that he isn't a first-degree thinker. And don't assume that he wouldn't bet with a big hand. Later, we'll talk about fourth-degree thinkers making the same move. But for now, I'll simply say that the better you know your opponents, the more easily you can stay out of traps, both the ones that they set for you, and the ones that you set for yourself.

Next month, we'll take on the second-, third-, and fourth-degree thinkers. Until then, good luck at the tables.

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