Vegas Baby!

Saturday, April 19, 2008

That's right folks; in just over a month's time I'll be taking my first ever trip to the poker capital of the world - Las Vegas, Nevada. I didn't report it in my blog, but after the 22(ish) buy in downswing and near break even month last month, I took the decision not to go with my friends to Vegas. I simply can't afford it this year with the wedding, honeymoon and building works. I was very disappointed - of course - but within a week or two had accepted that I'd just have to miss out.

I had arranged to have most of the ushers for my wedding over to the house for some fajitas, beers and to discuss the arrangements for my stag do in June. It was at this time that the guys proposed they cover the costs of flights and accommodation for me to go to Vegas with them in lieu of going abroad for my stag do. The theory being that the £100-150 it would cost them each would be no different to the extra cost each to have a stag do in Prague, Amsterdam or some other suitably seedy location. Whatever the economics of it, I was very touched by their offer and accepted subject to us at least leaving my home city for the actual stag do. So it was agreed that I'd go to Vegas and that Newcastle (why I man) would be the likely venue for a drinking weekend away on the Tyne. Thanks guys :)

All I need to do now is put together some spending money for my trip to Vegas. I'm really looking forward to it although it's the sights, food, banter and atmosphere that I'm looking forward to more than the gambling and poker. I'll no doubt play some poker because, well, you kind of have to; and I'll probably stick a few quarters in a slot machine and play whatever stakes of blackjack will entitle me to comp drinks and cheese toasties. Ultimately, I'm going to Vegas to see a new part of the world, to have some fun with my friends, and for a break away from full time poker. If I wanted to go nuts gambling I could walk for 5 minutes to the Maybury Casino or go all Ed Hollis online.

On the poker front this month got off to a flyer as I booked approximately 50 hours in two weeks making around $5500 plus in the region of $750-800 in rakeback. I also lasted that entire time without checking my stats or balances and it was only when I was presented with the offer of Vegas that I felt I had no choice but to be fully aware of my financial circumstances before making a decision. I withdrew $5,000 which will be decimated to pay for general monthly upkeep, wedding rings and kilts for the wedding and, as I have come to expect from Full Tilt, the 'cash-out curse' struck the very next day. To cut a long story shot I dropped over 10 buy ins again over the course of the last week. My hours suffered but averaging around 5 hours a day for each of the weekdays between now and the end of the month I should still achieve my target of approximately 100 hours per calendar month.

I have also been playing around with my game a fair bit in the last few weeks and in those early weeks of the month experimented with a new style I had observed in another player who appears to be a solid winner - Bareace11. In short I started playing a super-nit like 10/5/4 game with a passive approach preflop offset somewhat by an aggressive post-flop approach. Playing 10/5 and nut-peddling really is suicide at NL$200 so I knew that I had to play real poker post flop with more bluffing than I am used to. There were some real advantages to this style in that my tight image gave me a lot of fold equity when I needed it. For example I might limp in an early position with a middling pocket-pair and when an active button raises the pot - which usually includes other limps - I can 3 bet preflop knowing I'll usually pick up the dead money and the raise. I also ran this play frequently with AA/KK often making in the region of 8-10 big blinds without even seeing a flop or much more if I got someone on the hook.

My tighter style also forced me to run more plays post-flop that I was used to, as I would simply be milked to death by isolation raises if I wasn't prepared to play back without a real hand. For example I might open limp 44 in MP to be raised by an active CO/BTN player who has a fairly solid and often winning game on him. On a flop of 3,7,9 I might sometime choose to check-raise rather than check-fold. Essentially I'm pressurizing villain's relatively wide range and at the same time representing the hand he fears the most on this kind of a board - the set. Obviously playing this style I was limping 33,77 and 99 and would, if I hit, check-raise in the same manner. In many ways my image equity generated a lot of fold equity and by picking off the odd pot with a bluff like this I ensured that my limps remained profitable. The only slight problem is that whilst this play worked well against good thinking players that have the discipline to fold hands, it really looses value against aggro-monkeys that have learned to raise limpers with a wide range but then cannot fold anything post flop. A good player for example would likely fold 89 to my check-raise (a really good player would have probably check it btw) but some of the less able players will call in the hope that they are ahead and you back down on the turn. This then puts hero in the tough spot of deciding whether to continue to tell the tale of his flopped set by building the pot on the turn or whether to give up on the bluff. Ultimately I found it became really easy to become lazy and in an effort not to run bluffs against opponents that can't fold marginal holdings I found I'd often try and just fit n' fold against players that would fold to occasional aggressive play on unfavourable flop textures. Consequently as the hours rolled on I'd be more inclined to play fit n' fold poker.

Despite the pearls of the style I still made a simply fantastic amount of money in those first two weeks running at over 4ptbb/100 for approximately 35,000 hands. However, I hit problems when my showdown performance started to let me down. First of all a good proportion ($1500) of those winnings had come from running well on "all in equity" and a further indefinable amount would be from what you might call 'favourable situations' or coolers and perhaps from trading on my previous 13/10 image. The great stat of concern was my "won without showdown" which showed that I was losing a whopping -3.5bb/100 in non-showdown pots. That, in a nutshell, was the damage done by tightening up and also by reducing my blind steals by over 10%. Many of these concerns were then confirmed over the early part of last week when my all in equity rapidly adjusted itself and I found myself increasingly in 'unfavourable situations'. After approximately 45,000 hands of playing 10/5/4 poker I concluded that even with the abundance of over-aggression at NL$200 it's not an effective style to adopt by default and I also noticed that Bareace11's win rate is dropping all the time in my database. If I had to guess, I think you'd be doing well to remain above 1.5ptbb/100 playing that style over a meaningful sample of hands although I concede that you could easily play massive amounts of tables since you are folding so much. Great if you want to be a rakeback + fpp pro with some winnings on top but not great if you are looking to consistently crush the levels and move up through the poker rankings.

The last few days I reverted to my more natural 13/10/2.5 game but found myself instinctually unable to let go of some of the new 'plays' I had developed when playing the tighter style. Not only that but I found I was being even more aggressive than before at roughly 15/12/4, and I was more regularly pressurizing my opponents range rather than worrying so much about how my cards were fitting into the flop. It's very early days but I think that playing super-nit tight for 45,000 hands forced me to worry a lot more about my opponents hand, what they think I have and what kind of heat would be taken to secure a pot when I had missed the flop completely. In returning to my more regular style I seem to have incorporated some of my extra post-flop play and aggression into my otherwise aggressive but fairly tight preflop game. The most telling statistic for the last 5,000 hands (I know: NOTHING) is my "win money when saw flop" which is just over 40% relative to my "win money at showdown" of 45% - I was running bad in PokerEV for what its worth. Achieving a "win money when saw flop" percentage of above 36% is something that has eluded me for years and with my more aggressive post-flop style I have achieved over 40% despite my showdown performance pulling the figures down through bad variance. Irrespective of what the stats say I feel I have been playing some outstanding poker in the last few days and I also had a positive "win money without showdown" figure inPokerEV - something else that has eluded me for years! I guess what I'm saying is that there is some value in playing a style that is completely different and unnatural for a while in order to force yourself to make different plays and approach poker and the problems it presents in a different way. Playing nit-tight and passive post-flop forced me to make adaptations which have now crossed into my 'core' game, apparently to its benefit. Perhaps there will be some value in playing super-hyper-mega LAG for a month to see what benefits that style can bring to my overall game.  

To read more or to leave comments click [Splats Poker Blog]