16,000 Hands Under My Belt

Saturday, August 25, 2007

I looked at my balance and pokertracker stats last night for the first time in a week. I guestimated I'd be around even for all poker played since I quit my job and I was dead on at $68 up. I've played 45 hours and just over 16,0000 hands in that time at basically 0.00ptbb/100. On the brighter side I've made around $500 in rakeback which is something at least!

My key stats are as follows:

VP$IP - 19.21%
PFR - 15.91%
AF - 3.75
Att Steal - 32.15%
Fold BB steal - 89.99%
Went to SD - 26.51%
Win$ at SD - 51.72%
Win$ when saw flop - 39.18%

I'm struggling to see where I'm going so wrong at the moment and I hope it's just a bad/break even run. My Went to SD is perhaps a fraction too high and my win$ at SD a fraction too low. I'm maybe calling off a few too many river bets when I know I'm beat so I'll have to watch for that. It's a bit of a tightrope though because if you start to show any willingness to lay hands down and you'll have every tom, dick and harry betting the hell out of you.

This last week I've also pushed my VP$IP and PFR up a little to 20% and 17% respectively which I think should probably be about optimal for my particular style and ability of poker. I'm just not seeing any major mistakes pre or post-flop at the moment but I'll keep looking in case this poor start is something I'm doing as opposed to the cards being dealt.

I had one hand the other day I was really mad at myself about. A super-aggressive pre-flop raisor had been raising or 3-betting nearly every hand preflop and his stats were epic. It folded to him on the button and he raised - as usual - so I happily re-raised with KsQs as my hand crushes his range. He then 4-bet me but had enough back to fold and I came all over the top in an instant giving him little credit for a hand. That was a mistake – not only cause he had KK – but also because this player wasn't entirely clueless and if I'd thought about it I'd surely have realised that he'd not 4-bet light when someone is finally resisting his raising antics.

Other than that it just seems to be setville for my opponents whenever I have a hand. Sometimes I can get away or keep it cheap in raised pots with 100bb effective stacks but I'm finding very often its 3-bet pots. For example, yesterday the CO raises $7 into my BB and I'm holding QQ with a $200 stack that he covers. I make it $25 to go, he calls and the flop comes down 6-high. I bet between half and two-thirds pot and he slides all in on me. Maybe I'm a fish but I just don't see how I can fold QQ to that action on a 6-high board when I've already sunk about $65 of a $200 stack into the middle (anyone agree/disagree?). I call and he stacks me with 66. I had AA stacked 4 times in one day in almost identical circumstances.

Another potential factor is when I've been getting big hands I've been forced to bet them on account of the board texture. I'm not a big slow-player at the best of times but often I'm flopping the nuts and having to make healthy continuation bets (that are unlikely to be called) where on a more favourable board you could allow your opponent an opportunity to catch up to 2nd best hand. A theoretical example of this is if I were to raise 99 from open field and find a caller in the blinds. The flop comes 9s,8h,3h - as I see it that just isn't a board I can mess around on as nearly every card that might help villain would probably allow him to overtake. If he has a flush or straight draw and hits it then I fall behind and if he has over-cards like 1010 or JJ then again improvement on his part kills me. All too often I've bet these boards and taken a small pot. A board of K,9,4 rainbow would be so much better as a villain holding the likes of KJ or KQ or even 910 could be lured into picking up two-pair for 2nd best hand that would probably result in a stacking. Hopefully these situations are all just examples of a little big bad variance but I won't lie, I am concerned.

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