NL$1000 - Got The T-Shirt

Wednesday, June 6, 2007

The last few nights I have been continuing to single table at levels higher than my bankrolled NL$200 - in fact, I've not played NL$200 in well over a week. I've played a fair bit at NL$400 buying in for $200 but, as it happens, I've probably played as much or more of NL$600 buying in for $2-300. Generally I'm doing a little data mining before taking a seat and I'm usually specifically targeting tables that have a clear statistical fish over whom I'll almost certainly have an edge.

This has been quite a frustrating strategy as I've often had to leave a table and join waiting lists when the fish has gone/busted out. I believe I'm probably good enough to have an edge over most of the remaining nits and 25/22's but not a very big one and I'm not bankrolled to be sitting playing an 'hourly rate' game against them.

I've had some small successes with a few double up's to full stacks at NL$400 and also at NL$600 but I'm yet to get a really nice night where I get to a full stack at say NL$600 then double through again and then some.

However, I have manage to get $400-500 ahead for the night on two occasions and have bought into NL$1000 tables. I've struggled to find many fish and most them are even shorter stacked than me making it very difficult to play anything other than tourney style poker against them. It's been fun and refreshing to play a level where there is some real poker and I have so much more certainty in my play and my reads at this level as the players just don't - generally - make completely inexplicable plays.

Tonight had the making of my first big breakthrough. I bought in for $450 at NL$1000 on the back of a $588 profit last night. I'm hoping to double up to $1000 then get up to $2000 at which point I can take three/four individual pops at NL$1000 or even consider an $800 buy into NL$4000. I lost a medium pot early doors where I 3-bet pre-flop and was forced to pack when I was 4-bet by a 3rd player who woke up with a hand. A few hands later however I found a double up with 99 vs AQc with the chips going in pre-flop. All my NL$1000 hopes and dreams were resting on that hand so I was sweating that flip pretty bad! I then won another few small pots and moved my stack to around $850 from my $450 investment. I feel good now; my stack is healthy enough to allow proper poker play and if I get a double up now it'll put me $1200 up for the night, being my biggest cash game night ever.

Then I had the crucial hand - I'll insert my thinking into the history at each street:

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $5/$10 Blinds - 5 Players - (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

Hero (SB): $862.00
BB: $1,318.75
UTG: $2,047.95
CO: $987.00
BTN: $2,873.30

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9s Ad (5 Players)
3 folds, Hero raises to $35.00, BB calls $25.00

I've been quiet from the SB and villain is a 19/10/1.5 so I don't expect him to get out of line with me. I make a standard raise and he calls.

Flop: ($70) Ks 9d Tc (2 Players)
Hero bets $50.00, BB calls $50.00

The flop has hit me but perhaps more crucially there are a number of hands I can represent here. I'm not value betting my 9 here as don't get called by a worse hand very often (QJ is there already and 78 drawing to the low is lame!). When he calls I'm immediately thinking he is either waiting to release a monster from his pants on the turn or is playing WA/WB (Way Ahead/Way Behind) theory.

Turn: ($170) Kc (2 Players)
Hero bets $145.00, BB calls $145.00

The turn card doesn't seem too bad - it completes no draws, counterfeits 910 and turns all potential monster hands into hands he'll absolutely have to raise for value. For this reason I bet as I don't think he's got a massive hand here that often and I will be able to make the easiest fold of my life if he raises.

River: ($460) 7s (2 Players)
Hero bets $350.00, BB calls $350.00

I'd be gob smacked if villain has a straight from that 7 but I'm now confident he does not have a king or better. There is a small chance he took a punt pre-flop with K8 or lower and is applying WA/WB but I think that's a very small chance. Villain has 10x here I'm sure of it - my 9 doesn't have showdown value so if I check I'm always losing this pot.

I decide to make a final stand and bet - I believe I can get him to fold that 10 because my bet really narrows my range significantly. In his mind I can only have Kx, AA, a full-house or a bluff. If I had A10 or QQ-JJ, etc I'd never bet this river but rather would check to showdown or snap off any bluff he tries to make. I believed he'd credit my play for being one of those hands that beat him more than a 3rd barrel bluff and fold.

Pot Size: $1,160.00 ($3 Rake)

BB had Qs Td (two pair, Kings and Tens) and WON (+$577.00)
Hero had 9s Ad (two pair, Kings and Nines) and LOST (-$580.00)

I was wrong! :D

I don't know if that was a very wrong assumption to make in general or if I was just unlucky on this occasion that it didn't work. I'm not experience enough at this level to know if a 10 will call that river all day long or if I really do have a good chance of getting him to fold. From a numbers point of view I need him to fold around 45% of the time. Good experience but an unfortunate outcome - I think if I'd have won the hand I'd have gained massive confidence and gone from strength to strength. FWIW I'd have played AA, KK, Kx and full houses exactly the same here on all three streets so I believe my line at least was a realistic representation of those hands. He'd not have seen me play those hands that way yet so I guess he had little to go on.

I guess what is somewhat encouraging is that I got my read on my opponents hand correct and that in light of that read I was confident enough to run a triple barrel bluff at a level 5 times higher than my normal level and for which I effectively have less than one buy in of a bankroll. Well......... .. at least I'm not playing with scared money. Hopefully a breakthrough will come and I'll get a nice big juicy run together.

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