Holiday Challenge - 75% Complete

Thursday, April 5, 2007

Still flying at NL$200 just now and I'm really loving it. I badly feel like I want to take a night out but I'm playing well, making money and clearing a bonus on Full Tilt with a very limited timescale. I won't manage to clear it all but I'll get through the bulk of it.

The holiday challenge has, so far, worked out better than I could ever imagine with 76% of the funds having been earned from poker already. This creates something of a problem as I'm about £200 away from my NL$400/£200 trigger of £4000. Normally I switch up at 20 buy ins for the new level and would drop back if I dropped down to 15 buy ins. So far this has worked well and I plan not to move up a level beyond $400/£200 even if I hit the £8000 trigger. I hope to layer in much more roll safety with a view to going full-time so I'll look to build up well beyond 50 buy ins and probably as much as 100 buy ins. I'd then revise my rules to greatly reduce the risk of ruin.

This all sounds great but the problem is that when switching up to a new level it's quite possible to drop 5 buy ins quickly. Over and above the fact that it can happen at anytime, and then some, there is the issue of adaptation to the finer points of the new level. This is a risk I accept to crack the level above but this time 5 buy ins would be £1000 - i.e. pretty much all of the holiday fund. I just can't take that risk as Laura would be very disappointed and wouldn't understand that 'taking a shot' to break a new level is par for the course. I therefore will make a slight adjustment and vary my rules in this instance to allow for a phased transition. When I hit the trigger I'll open up one table at the new level and if I lose my buy in I have to build up again from the level below. Every time I earn a buy in I can open up a new table until I've made 4-5 full buy ins at the new level at which time I can move up with 20 buy ins being my new drop down level. Hopefully, this revision will minimise my risk but also allow me to progress into the new level. It would be lovely if I could make enough money to go on holiday and return to a £4000+ bankroll so that I could get beasted into $400/£200 refreshed from two weeks in the sun.

However, there is a concern which I do need to flag - with myself as much as anything! In the last 32 hours of poker play I've been running at 15bb/100 which is equating to about $100 per hour!!! Whilst I'm not complaining, I doubt this is sustainable in the long-term even with recent adjustments to my game to improve it. I have to try and prepare for a potential down-turn but it's sooooooooooo hard when you feel on top of the world to mentally gear up for losing big pot after big pot as variance does its thing. That said, in the context of my overarching sample of all levels that 32 hours mixes with over 200 other hours to create a win rate of about 5.7bb/100 and that is sustainable in the long-term. Hopefully then this is just a run that was due to me :)

Tonight was the first time in ages where I actually found myself trailing at around $257 down but I managed to make it up later in the session with a well played AA hand. Basically a fish had called me flop and turn with top-pair-wank-kicker as I tried to push him out with king-high (KQ) representing the ace that hit the turn. On the river I gave up and we both checked. I'm disappointed that he called the 2nd barrel but I noted it down and a small argument in chat broke out as he criticised my play. I had good reasons for firing a second shot on the turn but I really can't see good reasons for calling two large bets on two streets with a very vulnerable hand. A short time later he limps in an early position and I raise from the blinds with AA. The flop is Q,10,4 with two spades and I bet pot. He calls and the turn is another 10. Again I bet pot and he calls at which point I'm confident he has something of the board and is playing the same game as last time (looking me up). The river brings a spade and ordinarily with this betting pattern it would scare the shit out of me, but against this guy I was happy to bet again and I bet hard. We'd been arguing and I was sure he'd think I was trying to run him over so I bet all in and he called and mucked Q9. Sweet justice! That hand really defined just how bad he is at poker and I said little more than 'ty' when he remarked that I had a good hand. Ya think?!? Did he reallythink I'd bet 3 streets in his face with nothing after the last hand? LOL. In the end I finished $1.50 down or around 75p - given my shaky start and the fact I seemed to time everything horribly tonight I'll take that and smile about it.

As a last little point; does anyone read this? I'd appreciate a simple 'yes' in comments if there are any regular or semi-regular readers (including friends and family). If there are people out there with an interest I'll try to update more often but if not I'll have a think about whether I want to try and get the blog doing the poker rounds or whether it has any value to me at all :)

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